A forecast about the next election of the lower house

I made a forecast about the next election of the lower house. I refered to the website "janjan" where all of informations about elections held in Japan was archived.

A forecast of single-seat constituency is as follows. I refered to speculation or privious results at every block.

+------------------+
| LDP          130 |
| DPJ          150 |
| Komei          5 |
| JCP            0 |
| SDP            2 |
| Nippon         1 |
| Kokumin        2 |
| nonpartisan   10 |
--------------------
| Total        300 |
+------------------+

A forecast of proportional consistency is as follows. I refered to the question "What party will you poll in proportional consistency of the next election?" in the public opinion poll by the press (FNN, JNN, NNN and Nikkei).

Considering the statistical standard error 5 percent, the total is as follows.

+-------------------------+
| LDP          180 -- 198 |
| DPJ          233 -- 257 |
| Komei         14 --  16 |
| JCP            9 --   9 |
| SDP            7 --   7 |
| Nippon         1 --   1 |
| Kokumin        4 --   4 |
| nonpartisan    9 --  11 |
+-------------------------+

Ginjiro's random walk path is recurrent!

I will go to Kyoto in the next month for attending the workshop : "Computational Finance". Since prababilistic symposiums and workshops tend to concentrate on cities in Kansai area, such as Kyoto or Osaka, my random walk path must be recurrent. However, it doesn't necessarily mean that my random walk path hits Kumano dormitory again.

:D

Random walk

My random walk path is about to go to Kyoto. I will arrive at Kyoto tonight.

I found a "mathematical" blog

I found a "mathematical" blog in the website of Mathematical Department, Williams College. It seems that anyone who uses LaTeX can write comments with mathematical formulas.

Why?

Why don't you update the sections of "graduate students' seminar", "senior students' study" and "member" in the webpage of Kansai seminar, the editor?

WHY NOT?

SPA 2009 in Berlin

33rd Conference on Stochastic Processes and Their Applications ("SPA") will be taken place in Berlin from 27th to 31st of July, 2009. See HERE for further details. Mr.Takeda will talk about Feymann-Kac semigroups in plenary lectures.

34th SPA will be taken place in Osaka, Japan. The webpage seems to be in preparation.

Tohoku Probability Seminar June, 2009

We had two talks in this month's Tohoku seminar. Both of them have finished successfully on June 18, 2009.

[The first talk]
Speaker : Naotaka Kajino (The graduate school of informatics, Kyoto University).
Title : Reflection barrier Brownian motions generated by time change of local Dirichlet forms with harmonic functions.
Date : June 18, 2009.
Place : Room 518, the Mathematic building, Tohoku University.

[The second talk]
Speaker : Kaneharu Tsuchida (Toba national college of maritime technology).
Title : Large deviations for additive functionals associated with diffusion processes with jumps.
Date : June 18, 2009.
Place : Room 518, the Mathematic building, Tohoku University.

I'll go back to Kyoto in the next month.

I(= a random walk path which stays at Sendai now) will go back to Kyoto in July. I will participate in the probabilistic symposium which will be taken place in Kyoto.

Tohoku Probability Seminar May, 2009

We didn't have any seminar in May, 2009. But, we will invite two speakers in June, 2009.

Tohoku Probability Seminar April, 2009

Speaker : Masayoshi Takeda (Tohoku University, Mathematical Department).
Title : Feymann-Kac formula and its capacity about scattering length.
Date : April 30, 2009.
Place : Room 518, the Mathematic building, Tohoku University.